Sensitivity Analysis Spreadsheet Instructions

This tool helps you stress-test your assumptions and understand how changes in cap rate and NOI impact your returns.

Download Your Spreadsheet

Watch This First

Quick Start Steps

Step 1: Enter Deal Assumptions

Start with your baseline deal inputs:

  • Purchase price
  • Construction cost
  • Loan-to-cost
  • NOI
  • Project duration

👉 Only edit the blue cells

  •  
Step 2: Review Cap Rate Sensitivity

See how small changes in exit cap rate impact your returns:

  • Exit value
  • Profit
  • Annual return
  • Equity multiple
  •  
Step 3: Review NOI Sensitivity

Adjust NOI assumptions to understand how performance shifts:

  • Lease-up scenarios
  • Vacancy improvements
  • Rent growth potential
  •  
Step 4: Analyze the Combined Table

This is where everything comes together and where real decisions get made:

  • Worst case → high cap rate + low NOI
  • Best case → low cap rate + high NOI
  • Baseline → your current assumptions

The Golden Rule

ONLY EDIT BLUE CELLS

  • Blue cells = inputs you can change

  • Black/gray cells = formulas

Changing formulas can break the model, so tread carefully.

What This Model is Built For

This is a deal refinement tool, not a screening tool.

Use it after a deal passes your initial analysis to:

  • Understand downside risk
  • Identify break points in your assumptions
  • See how sensitive your returns are to change

How This Fits Into Your Process

  1. Use your Back-of-Napkin Sheet → filter deals
  2. Use this tool → stress-test assumptions
  3. Then move into full underwriting

Need a hand?

Have questions or want help using the spreadsheet?

Reach out anytime:
📩 shop@hungry-inc.comÂ